問題詳情
Decision-making is not unlike poker—it often matters not only what you think, but also whatothers think you think and what you think they think you think. Interestingly poker, that most subjectiveof games, has often been of considerable interest to people who are, by any standards, good thinkers.
The great mathematician John von Neumann was, among his many other accomplishments, one ofthe originators of games theory. In particular, he showed that all games fall into one of two classes: thereare what he called “games of perfect information”, games like chess which are meant to involve noelement of concealment, bluff or luck—games where the players can, in principle, discover the best moveby the application of pure logic to the available data. Then there are “games of imperfect information”,like poker, in which it is impossible to know, in advance, that one course of action is better than another.
One of the most dangerous illusions about business (or indeed, any activity involving humanbeings and human institutions) is that it can be treated as a game of perfect information. Quite the reverse,business, politics, life itself are games which we must normally play with very imperfect information.Many a business decision involves odds that would make a professional poker player shudder, for thenumber and extent of the unknown and unknowable factors are themselves often incalculable. But, as Ihave wished to point out, few organizations find it comfortable or congenial to admit that they aregambling, and many still prefer to delude themselves that they are playing a sober, responsible game ofchess and are not encouraged, as is often the case, in a fling at the poker table.
【題組】31. John von Neumann invented __________________.
(A) a chess game
(B) a poker game
(C) a logic theory
(D) a market theory
(E) a games theory
參考答案